Kansas City Royals is favored at 56%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and the stronger offense.
F5 · Projected score
Projected total runs
Leans over+1.2 vs league avg 9.0
Projected score
Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.
Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.
Bet: Kansas City Royals leading after 5
▸ +11pp value
Why: Model edge driven by stronger pitcher and offense (wrc+).
Market % for F5 uses the full-game moneyline as a proxy (no F5 price from the odds source).
Historical hit rate: not enough historical games yet
Bet: Kansas City Royals to win
▸ +7pp value
Why: Model edge driven by stronger pitcher and offense (wrc+).
Historical hit rate: not enough historical games yet
Bet: Over 8.5 runs
▸ +17pp value
Why: Tired bullpen after heavy innings in recent days
Historical hit rate: not enough historical games yet
Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.