mlbUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers

7h 28m 22s

Cincinnati Reds34%

Los Angeles Dodgers66%

Market underrates Cincinnati Reds by 6 points · market

Los Angeles Dodgers is favored at 66%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and the stronger offense.

Cincinnati Reds32%

Los Angeles Dodgers68%

F5 · Projected score

Cincinnati Reds

2.0

–

Los Angeles Dodgers

3.1

Projected total runs

Near league average

9.1

+0.1 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Cincinnati Reds

3.6

–

Los Angeles Dodgers

5.5

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

Model vs market+6pp

Bet: Over 8.5 runs

Our analysis

56%

Market

50%

▸ +6pp value

Why: Tired bullpen after heavy innings in recent days

Historical hit rate: not enough historical games yet

Why 66%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayCincinnati RedsLos Angeles DodgersHome

Starter matchup

53.0%

Offense (wRC+)

27.0%

Bullpen (last 14d)

13.0%

Market consensus

6.0%

Park & weather

1.0%

Rhett Lowder

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

RHP

5.43

ERA

2.67

4.71

FIP

3.42

1.49

WHIP

0.90

7.0

K/9

8.8

3.6

BB/9

2.1

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—