mlbYankee Stadium

Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees

4h 22m 53s

Colorado Rockies35%

New York Yankees65%

Market underrates Colorado Rockies by 3 points · market

New York Yankees is favored at 65%, largely due to a fresher bullpen and stronger starting pitching.

Colorado Rockies32%

New York Yankees68%

F5 · Projected score

Colorado Rockies

2.4

–

New York Yankees

3.5

Projected total runs

Leans over

10.6

+1.6 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Colorado Rockies

4.3

–

New York Yankees

6.3

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 65%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayColorado RockiesNew York YankeesHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

38.8%

Starter matchup

25.5%

Offense (wRC+)

16.3%

Market consensus

15.3%

Park & weather

4.1%

Tomoyuki Sugano

Will Warren

RHP

5.19

ERA

4.16

5.37

FIP

4.23

1.35

WHIP

1.38

5.4

K/9

8.8

2.0

BB/9

3.1

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

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