mlbCitizens Bank Park

Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies

3h 58m 25s

Houston Astros42%

Philadelphia Phillies58%

Philadelphia Phillies is favored at 58%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and the stronger offense.

Houston Astros39%

Philadelphia Phillies61%

F5 · Projected score

Houston Astros

1.8

–

Philadelphia Phillies

2.4

Projected total runs

Leans under

7.5

-1.5 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Houston Astros

3.2

–

Philadelphia Phillies

4.3

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 58%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayHouston AstrosPhiladelphia PhilliesHome

Starter matchup

68.5%

Market consensus

18.0%

Offense (wRC+)

8.1%

Bullpen (last 14d)

2.7%

Park & weather

2.7%

Hunter Brown

Cristopher Sánchez

RHP

LHP

3.31

ERA

2.58

4.23

FIP

2.65

1.30

WHIP

1.20

9.6

K/9

10.3

4.8

BB/9

2.1

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—