Boston Red Sox is favored at 65%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and a fresher bullpen.
F5 · Projected score
Projected total runs
Leans over+0.4 vs league avg 9.0
Projected score
Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.
Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.
Bet: Boston Red Sox leading after 5
▸ +7pp value
Why: Model edge driven by stronger pitcher and offense (wrc+).
Market % for F5 uses the full-game moneyline as a proxy (no F5 price from the odds source).
Historical hit rate: not enough historical games yet
Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.