Detroit Tigers is favored at 57%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and a fresher bullpen.
F5 · Projected score
Projected total runs
Near league average-0.1 vs league avg 9.0
Projected score
Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.
Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.
Bet: Detroit Tigers leading after 5
▸ +5pp value
Why: Model edge driven by stronger pitcher and offense (wrc+).
Market % for F5 uses the full-game moneyline as a proxy (no F5 price from the odds source).
Historical hit rate: not enough historical games yet
Bet: Over 8.5 runs
▸ +3pp value
Why: Tired bullpen after heavy innings in recent days
Historical hit rate: not enough historical games yet
Bet: Detroit Tigers to win
▸ +3pp value
Why: Model edge driven by stronger pitcher and bullpen (last 14d).
Historical hit rate: not enough historical games yet
Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.