mlbloanDepot park

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins

3h 57m 36s

New York Mets47%

Miami Marlins53%

Miami Marlins is favored at 53%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and a fresher bullpen.

New York Mets45%

Miami Marlins55%

F5 · Projected score

New York Mets

2.3

–

Miami Marlins

2.6

Projected total runs

Near league average

9.0

0.0 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

New York Mets

4.3

–

Miami Marlins

4.7

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 53%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayNew York MetsMiami MarlinsHome

Starter matchup

39.3%

Offense (wRC+)

33.9%

Market consensus

12.5%

Bullpen (last 14d)

7.1%

Park & weather

7.1%

Robert Stock

Janson Junk

RHP

5.81

ERA

4.00

4.06

FIP

4.11

1.75

WHIP

1.28

8.5

K/9

6.2

4.4

BB/9

2.4

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—