mlbOracle Park

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants

1h 2m 53s

St. Louis Cardinals53%

San Francisco Giants47%

St. Louis Cardinals is favored at 53%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and the stronger offense.

St. Louis Cardinals51%

San Francisco Giants49%

F5 · Projected score

St. Louis Cardinals

2.4

–

San Francisco Giants

2.3

Projected total runs

Leans under

8.6

-0.4 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

St. Louis Cardinals

4.4

–

San Francisco Giants

4.1

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 53%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwaySt. Louis CardinalsSan Francisco GiantsHome

Starter matchup

58.6%

Offense (wRC+)

19.0%

Market consensus

10.3%

Park & weather

6.9%

Bullpen (last 14d)

5.2%

Andre Pallante

Blade Tidwell

RHP

3.51

ERA

4.43

3.77

FIP

4.46

1.24

WHIP

1.24

6.3

K/9

7.6

2.9

BB/9

3.8

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

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