Atlanta Braves is favored at 54%, largely due to the stronger offense and a fresher bullpen.
F5 · Projected score
Projected total runs
Leans under-0.6 vs league avg 9.0
Projected score
Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.
Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.
Bet: Atlanta Braves leading after 5
▸ +4pp value
Why: Model edge driven by stronger offense (wrc+) and pitcher.
Market % for F5 uses the full-game moneyline as a proxy (no F5 price from the odds source).
Historical hit rate: not enough historical games yet
Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.