mlbT-Mobile Park

Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners

1h 27m 52s

Texas Rangers45%

Seattle Mariners55%

Market underrates Texas Rangers by 5 points · pitcher

Starting pitcher edge favors Texas Rangers, but other factors tip the overall pick the other way.

Seattle Mariners is favored at 55%, largely due to the stronger offense and park and weather conditions, despite Texas Rangers' starting pitcher having the better numbers.

Texas Rangers44%

Seattle Mariners56%

F5 · Projected score

Texas Rangers

2.5

–

Seattle Mariners

2.9

Projected total runs

Leans over

9.5

+0.5 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Texas Rangers

4.5

–

Seattle Mariners

5.0

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 55%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayTexas RangersSeattle MarinersHome

Starter matchup

75.6%

Offense (wRC+)

15.6%

Park & weather

6.7%

Market consensus

2.2%

Bullpen (last 14d)

0.0%

Cody Bradford

Kade Anderson

LHP

4.45

ERA

5.40

4.60

FIP

5.68

1.58

WHIP

1.47

4.8

K/9

6.6

2.1

BB/9

4.2

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—