mlbSutter Health Park

Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics

23m 00s

Toronto Blue Jays54%

Athletics46%

Market underrates Athletics by 8 points · stronger offense

Toronto Blue Jays is favored at 54%, largely due to a fresher bullpen and market.

Toronto Blue Jays52%

Athletics48%

F5 · Projected score

Toronto Blue Jays

2.4

–

Athletics

2.3

Projected total runs

Leans under

8.2

-0.8 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Toronto Blue Jays

4.3

–

Athletics

4.0

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 54%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayToronto Blue JaysAthleticsHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

47.8%

Market consensus

20.4%

Offense (wRC+)

15.9%

Starter matchup

13.3%

Park & weather

2.7%

Braydon Fisher

Brady Basso

RHP

LHP

3.20

ERA

4.32

4.26

FIP

3.33

1.24

WHIP

1.41

8.7

K/9

6.5

4.9

BB/9

1.4

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

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