mlbPetco Park

Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres

1h 28m 23s

Washington Nationals41%

San Diego Padres59%

Market underrates Washington Nationals by 5 points · stronger offense

San Diego Padres is favored at 59%, largely due to a fresher bullpen, despite Washington Nationals' starting pitcher having the better numbers.

Washington Nationals38%

San Diego Padres62%

F5 · Projected score

Washington Nationals

2.4

–

San Diego Padres

3.1

Projected total runs

Leans over

9.9

+0.9 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Washington Nationals

4.4

–

San Diego Padres

5.5

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

Model vs market+19pp

Bet: Over 8 runs

Our analysis

71%

Market

52%

▸ +19pp value

Why: Tired bullpen after heavy innings in recent days

Historical hit rate: not enough historical games yet

Why 59%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayWashington NationalsSan Diego PadresHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

73.5%

Offense (wRC+)

12.0%

Starter matchup

10.8%

Park & weather

3.6%

Market consensus

0.0%

Jackson Kent

Walker Buehler

LHP

RHP

5.55

ERA

4.56

4.30

FIP

4.38

1.68

WHIP

1.34

7.8

K/9

7.7

7.0

BB/9

3.4

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—