mlbCitizens Bank Park

Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies

22h 23m 25s

Houston Astros47%

Philadelphia Phillies53%

Market underrates Houston Astros by 4 points · fresher bullpen

Philadelphia Phillies is favored at 53%, largely due to the stronger offense and market.

Houston Astros47%

Philadelphia Phillies53%

F5 · Projected score

Houston Astros

2.4

–

Philadelphia Phillies

2.5

Projected total runs

Near league average

8.9

-0.1 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Houston Astros

4.3

–

Philadelphia Phillies

4.6

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 53%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayHouston AstrosPhiladelphia PhilliesHome

Offense (wRC+)

34.9%

Market consensus

30.2%

Starter matchup

14.0%

Park & weather

11.6%

Bullpen (last 14d)

9.3%

—

Zack Wheeler

—

RHP

—

ERA

3.23

—

FIP

3.70

—

WHIP

1.08

—

K/9

10.8

—

BB/9

2.8

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—