mlbTruist Park

Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves

21h 32m 54s

Tampa Bay Rays47%

Atlanta Braves53%

Atlanta Braves is favored at 53%, largely due to a fresher bullpen and stronger starting pitching.

Tampa Bay Rays44%

Atlanta Braves56%

F5 · Projected score

Tampa Bay Rays

2.2

–

Atlanta Braves

2.5

Projected total runs

Leans under

8.4

-0.6 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Tampa Bay Rays

4.0

–

Atlanta Braves

4.4

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 53%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayTampa Bay RaysAtlanta BravesHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

51.2%

Starter matchup

18.6%

Offense (wRC+)

14.0%

Market consensus

14.0%

Park & weather

2.3%

Nick Martinez

Martín Pérez

RHP

LHP

3.04

ERA

3.25

4.01

FIP

4.37

1.10

WHIP

1.27

5.3

K/9

6.8

1.4

BB/9

3.9

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—