mlbDaikin Park

Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros

11h 10m 20s

Atlanta Braves46%

Houston Astros54%

Houston Astros is favored at 54%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and park and weather conditions.

Atlanta Braves46%

Houston Astros54%

F5 · Projected score

Atlanta Braves

2.3

–

Houston Astros

2.5

Projected total runs

Leans under

8.5

-0.5 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Atlanta Braves

4.0

–

Houston Astros

4.5

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 54%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayAtlanta BravesHouston AstrosHome

Starter matchup

47.5%

Bullpen (last 14d)

39.0%

Offense (wRC+)

11.9%

Park & weather

1.7%

Grant Holmes

Hayden Wesneski

RHP

3.49

ERA

3.70

4.75

FIP

3.77

1.30

WHIP

1.13

7.0

K/9

7.0

3.8

BB/9

3.0

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—