mlbTropicana Field

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays

8h 10m 43s

Boston Red Sox49%

Tampa Bay Rays51%

Tampa Bay Rays is favored at 51%, largely due to park and weather conditions.

Boston Red Sox48%

Tampa Bay Rays52%

F5 · Projected score

Boston Red Sox

2.3

–

Tampa Bay Rays

2.4

Projected total runs

Leans under

8.3

-0.7 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Boston Red Sox

4.1

–

Tampa Bay Rays

4.3

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 51%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayBoston Red SoxTampa Bay RaysHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

47.6%

Offense (wRC+)

42.9%

Park & weather

9.5%

Starter matchup

0.0%

—

Freddy Peralta

—

RHP

—

ERA

3.86

—

FIP

4.30

—

WHIP

0.97

—

K/9

6.7

—

BB/9

2.0

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—