mlbGreat American Ball Park

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

10h 41m 59s

Chicago Cubs55%

Cincinnati Reds45%

Chicago Cubs is favored at 55%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and the stronger offense.

Chicago Cubs56%

Cincinnati Reds44%

F5 · Projected score

Chicago Cubs

3.2

–

Cincinnati Reds

2.8

Projected total runs

Leans over

10.8

+1.8 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Chicago Cubs

5.8

–

Cincinnati Reds

5.0

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 55%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayChicago CubsCincinnati RedsHome

Starter matchup

58.6%

Offense (wRC+)

28.7%

Bullpen (last 14d)

11.5%

Park & weather

1.1%

Matthew Boyd

Nick Lodolo

LHP

4.16

ERA

5.12

4.40

FIP

5.81

1.24

WHIP

1.49

7.0

K/9

7.4

2.8

BB/9

3.9

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—