mlbPNC Park

Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

10h 41m 46s

Kansas City Royals46%

Pittsburgh Pirates54%

Pittsburgh Pirates is favored at 54%, largely due to a fresher bullpen, despite Kansas City Royals' starting pitcher having the better numbers.

Kansas City Royals45%

Pittsburgh Pirates55%

F5 · Projected score

Kansas City Royals

2.4

–

Pittsburgh Pirates

2.6

Projected total runs

Near league average

9.0

0.0 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Kansas City Royals

4.2

–

Pittsburgh Pirates

4.8

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 54%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayKansas City RoyalsPittsburgh PiratesHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

65.2%

Starter matchup

26.1%

Park & weather

6.5%

Offense (wRC+)

2.2%

Noah Cameron

Bubba Chandler

LHP

RHP

3.84

ERA

4.28

3.72

FIP

4.24

1.19

WHIP

1.35

8.1

K/9

8.1

2.8

BB/9

4.6

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—