mlbPetco Park

Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres

12h 41m 46s

Miami Marlins47%

San Diego Padres53%

Starting pitcher edge favors Miami Marlins, but other factors tip the overall pick the other way.

San Diego Padres is favored at 53%, largely due to a fresher bullpen and the stronger offense, despite Miami Marlins' starting pitcher having the better numbers.

Miami Marlins46%

San Diego Padres54%

F5 · Projected score

Miami Marlins

2.4

–

San Diego Padres

2.6

Projected total runs

Near league average

8.9

-0.1 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Miami Marlins

4.3

–

San Diego Padres

4.7

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 53%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayMiami MarlinsSan Diego PadresHome

Starter matchup

44.3%

Bullpen (last 14d)

38.9%

Offense (wRC+)

15.1%

Park & weather

1.6%

Eury Pérez

Casey Mize

RHP

3.99

ERA

5.97

4.14

FIP

6.12

1.24

WHIP

1.49

9.7

K/9

5.3

4.0

BB/9

2.9

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—