mlbOriole Park at Camden Yards

Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles

8h 5m 43s

Milwaukee Brewers46%

Baltimore Orioles54%

Baltimore Orioles is favored at 54%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and park and weather conditions.

Milwaukee Brewers47%

Baltimore Orioles53%

F5 · Projected score

Milwaukee Brewers

2.3

–

Baltimore Orioles

2.5

Projected total runs

Leans under

8.7

-0.3 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Milwaukee Brewers

4.2

–

Baltimore Orioles

4.6

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 54%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayMilwaukee BrewersBaltimore OriolesHome

Starter matchup

58.7%

Bullpen (last 14d)

17.4%

Park & weather

13.0%

Offense (wRC+)

10.9%

Robert Gasser

Trevor Rogers

LHP

4.30

ERA

4.22

4.37

FIP

3.68

1.27

WHIP

1.22

8.6

K/9

8.2

2.9

BB/9

2.2

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—