mlbChase Field

New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks

12h 9m 44s

New York Yankees57%

Arizona Diamondbacks43%

New York Yankees is favored at 57%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and the stronger offense.

New York Yankees59%

Arizona Diamondbacks41%

F5 · Projected score

New York Yankees

2.2

–

Arizona Diamondbacks

1.8

Projected total runs

Leans under

7.2

-1.8 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

New York Yankees

4.0

–

Arizona Diamondbacks

3.2

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 57%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayNew York YankeesArizona DiamondbacksHome

Starter matchup

68.5%

Bullpen (last 14d)

23.6%

Park & weather

4.7%

Offense (wRC+)

3.1%

Cam Schlittler

Brandon Pfaadt

RHP

1.95

ERA

3.77

2.62

FIP

4.11

0.90

WHIP

1.17

11.1

K/9

6.1

2.1

BB/9

2.1

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—