mlbProgressive Field

Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians

10h 11m 14s

Athletics44%

Cleveland Guardians56%

Cleveland Guardians is favored at 56%, largely due to a fresher bullpen and stronger starting pitching.

Athletics44%

Cleveland Guardians56%

F5 · Projected score

Athletics

2.4

–

Cleveland Guardians

2.8

Projected total runs

Near league average

9.2

+0.2 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Athletics

4.2

–

Cleveland Guardians

5.0

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 56%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayAthleticsCleveland GuardiansHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

58.9%

Starter matchup

25.8%

Offense (wRC+)

12.9%

Park & weather

2.4%

Jacob Lopez

Tanner Bibee

LHP

RHP

5.02

ERA

4.16

5.12

FIP

4.64

1.48

WHIP

1.18

8.4

K/9

7.1

4.4

BB/9

2.7

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—