mlbCiti Field

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

8h 11m 59s

Philadelphia Phillies44%

New York Mets56%

New York Mets is favored at 56%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and the stronger offense.

Philadelphia Phillies44%

New York Mets56%

F5 · Projected score

Philadelphia Phillies

2.3

–

New York Mets

2.7

Projected total runs

Near league average

9.0

0.0 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Philadelphia Phillies

4.1

–

New York Mets

4.8

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 56%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayPhiladelphia PhilliesNew York MetsHome

Starter matchup

64.9%

Bullpen (last 14d)

23.4%

Offense (wRC+)

10.6%

Park & weather

1.1%

Andrew Painter

Christian Scott

RHP

5.54

ERA

3.76

4.81

FIP

3.79

1.44

WHIP

1.26

7.8

K/9

10.8

3.4

BB/9

3.9

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—