mlbBusch Stadium

Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals

11h 15m 02s

Washington Nationals51%

St. Louis Cardinals49%

Washington Nationals is favored at 51%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and the stronger offense.

Washington Nationals51%

St. Louis Cardinals49%

F5 · Projected score

Washington Nationals

2.7

–

St. Louis Cardinals

2.7

Projected total runs

Leans over

9.6

+0.6 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Washington Nationals

4.8

–

St. Louis Cardinals

4.7

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 51%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayWashington NationalsSt. Louis CardinalsHome

Starter matchup

48.7%

Bullpen (last 14d)

35.5%

Offense (wRC+)

13.2%

Park & weather

2.6%

Andrew Alvarez

Michael McGreevy

LHP

RHP

3.35

ERA

3.83

3.32

FIP

4.24

1.27

WHIP

1.24

8.7

K/9

6.3

4.2

BB/9

2.5

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—