mlbAmerican Family Field

Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers

Tampa Bay Rays48%

Milwaukee Brewers52%

Starting pitcher edge favors Tampa Bay Rays, but other factors tip the overall pick the other way.

Milwaukee Brewers is favored at 52%, largely due to the stronger offense and a fresher bullpen, despite Tampa Bay Rays' starting pitcher having the better numbers.

Tampa Bay Rays46%

Milwaukee Brewers54%

F5 · Projected score

Tampa Bay Rays

1.8

–

Milwaukee Brewers

2.0

Projected total runs

Leans under

6.7

-2.3 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Tampa Bay Rays

3.3

–

Milwaukee Brewers

3.4

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 52%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayTampa Bay RaysMilwaukee BrewersHome

Starter matchup

64.5%

Offense (wRC+)

22.4%

Bullpen (last 14d)

13.1%

Park & weather

0.0%

Drew Rasmussen

Logan Henderson

RHP

2.67

ERA

2.47

2.87

FIP

3.37

0.91

WHIP

0.84

9.1

K/9

10.1

1.7

BB/9

1.7

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—