mlbBusch Stadium

Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals

21h 54m 52s

Arizona Diamondbacks43%

St. Louis Cardinals57%

St. Louis Cardinals is favored at 57%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and a fresher bullpen.

Projected total runs

Near league average

9.0

0.0 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Arizona Diamondbacks

4.3

–

St. Louis Cardinals

4.8

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Why 57%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayArizona DiamondbacksSt. Louis CardinalsHome

Starter matchup

59.5%

Bullpen (last 14d)

16.2%

Park & weather

13.5%

Offense (wRC+)

10.8%

Brandon Pfaadt

Dustin May

RHP

4.58

ERA

4.78

4.54

FIP

3.30

1.31

WHIP

1.32

6.7

K/9

8.7

2.8

BB/9

2.9

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L3 ERA

—

Days rest

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