mlbNationals Park

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals

13h 17m 36s

Arizona Diamondbacks65%

Washington Nationals35%

Arizona Diamondbacks is favored at 65%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and a fresher bullpen.

Arizona Diamondbacks60%

Washington Nationals40%

F5 · Projected score

Arizona Diamondbacks

3.0

–

Washington Nationals

2.4

Projected total runs

Leans over

9.6

+0.6 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Arizona Diamondbacks

5.4

–

Washington Nationals

4.2

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

💡SIGNAL

Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks leading after 5

Our analysis

60%

Market

—

Why: Clearly better starting pitcher in the first five innings

Historical hit rate: not enough historical games yet

Why 65%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayArizona DiamondbacksWashington NationalsHome

Starter matchup

68.8%

Bullpen (last 14d)

27.0%

Offense (wRC+)

2.1%

Park & weather

2.1%

Eduardo Rodriguez

Carson Palmquist

LHP

2.62

ERA

8.74

4.14

FIP

3.41

1.22

WHIP

1.68

6.3

K/9

11.1

3.2

BB/9

2.4

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—