mlbChase Field

Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Athletics28%

Arizona Diamondbacks72%

Market underrates Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 points · stronger offense

Strong pick · Arizona Diamondbacks

High confidence, market edge and multiple factors align.

Arizona Diamondbacks is favored at 72%, largely due to the stronger offense and a fresher bullpen.

Projected total runs

Leans over

10.1

+1.1 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Athletics

3.9

–

Arizona Diamondbacks

6.2

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Why 72%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayAthleticsArizona DiamondbacksHome

Offense (wRC+)

55.5%

Bullpen (last 14d)

29.0%

Market consensus

14.3%

Starter matchup

0.8%

Park & weather

0.4%

Gage Jump

Merrill Kelly

—

ERA

—

FIP

—

WHIP

—

K/9

—

BB/9

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—