mlbTarget Field

Athletics @ Minnesota Twins

14h 42m 38s

Athletics37%

Minnesota Twins63%

Minnesota Twins is favored at 63%, largely due to a fresher bullpen, despite Athletics' starting pitcher having the better numbers.

Athletics40%

Minnesota Twins60%

F5 · Projected score

Athletics

2.5

–

Minnesota Twins

3.1

Projected total runs

Leans over

10.2

+1.2 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Athletics

4.5

–

Minnesota Twins

5.6

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 63%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayAthleticsMinnesota TwinsHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

89.4%

Starter matchup

5.8%

Park & weather

4.8%

Offense (wRC+)

0.0%

Jacob Lopez

Zebby Matthews

LHP

RHP

6.64

ERA

5.40

5.81

FIP

5.26

1.73

WHIP

1.34

7.4

K/9

7.5

5.4

BB/9

2.7

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—