mlbOriole Park at Camden Yards

Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles

13h 38m 19s

Atlanta Braves40%

Baltimore Orioles60%

Baltimore Orioles is favored at 60%, largely due to a fresher bullpen and stronger starting pitching.

Atlanta Braves43%

Baltimore Orioles57%

F5 · Projected score

Atlanta Braves

2.2

–

Baltimore Orioles

2.6

Projected total runs

Leans under

8.7

-0.3 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Atlanta Braves

4.0

–

Baltimore Orioles

4.7

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 60%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayAtlanta BravesBaltimore OriolesHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

50.0%

Offense (wRC+)

20.0%

Starter matchup

18.6%

Park & weather

11.4%

Grant Holmes

—

RHP

—

3.70

ERA

—

5.00

FIP

—

1.34

WHIP

—

7.6

K/9

—

4.0

BB/9

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—