mlbPNC Park

Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates

13h 13m 27s

Chicago Cubs45%

Pittsburgh Pirates55%

Pittsburgh Pirates is favored at 55%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and park and weather conditions.

Chicago Cubs45%

Pittsburgh Pirates55%

F5 · Projected score

Chicago Cubs

2.1

–

Pittsburgh Pirates

2.4

Projected total runs

Leans under

8.2

-0.8 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Chicago Cubs

3.9

–

Pittsburgh Pirates

4.3

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 55%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayChicago CubsPittsburgh PiratesHome

Starter matchup

57.9%

Bullpen (last 14d)

23.7%

Park & weather

15.8%

Offense (wRC+)

2.6%

Matthew Boyd

Jared Jones

LHP

RHP

4.15

ERA

4.05

3.73

FIP

3.28

1.21

WHIP

1.10

8.8

K/9

10.8

2.4

BB/9

2.7

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—