mlbGlobe Life Field

Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers

46m 55s

Chicago White Sox59%

Texas Rangers41%

Market underrates Chicago White Sox by 15 points · fresher bullpen

Chicago White Sox is favored at 59%, largely due to a fresher bullpen and park and weather conditions, despite Texas Rangers' starting pitcher having the better numbers.

Projected total runs

Leans over

9.5

+0.5 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Chicago White Sox

5.2

–

Texas Rangers

4.3

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Why 59%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayChicago White SoxTexas RangersHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

75.3%

Market consensus

16.1%

Starter matchup

6.3%

Park & weather

1.7%

Offense (wRC+)

0.6%

Davis Martin

MacKenzie Gore

RHP

LHP

3.31

ERA

4.80

3.10

FIP

3.86

1.27

WHIP

1.28

8.2

K/9

9.9

2.8

BB/9

3.4

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—