mlbBusch Stadium

Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals

14h 46m 36s

Cincinnati Reds44%

St. Louis Cardinals56%

St. Louis Cardinals is favored at 56%, largely due to a fresher bullpen, despite Cincinnati Reds' starting pitcher having the better numbers.

Cincinnati Reds46%

St. Louis Cardinals54%

F5 · Projected score

Cincinnati Reds

2.5

–

St. Louis Cardinals

2.7

Projected total runs

Leans over

9.3

+0.3 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Cincinnati Reds

4.4

–

St. Louis Cardinals

4.9

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 56%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayCincinnati RedsSt. Louis CardinalsHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

76.9%

Offense (wRC+)

10.3%

Park & weather

7.7%

Starter matchup

5.1%

Rhett Lowder

Dustin May

RHP

5.75

ERA

4.78

4.66

FIP

3.30

1.64

WHIP

1.32

7.6

K/9

8.7

4.4

BB/9

2.9

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

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