mlbTropicana Field

Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays

13h 41m 46s

Cleveland Guardians44%

Tampa Bay Rays56%

Tampa Bay Rays is favored at 56%, largely due to stronger starting pitching.

Cleveland Guardians46%

Tampa Bay Rays54%

F5 · Projected score

Cleveland Guardians

2.1

–

Tampa Bay Rays

2.3

Projected total runs

Leans under

7.9

-1.1 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Cleveland Guardians

3.7

–

Tampa Bay Rays

4.2

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 56%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayCleveland GuardiansTampa Bay RaysHome

Starter matchup

56.6%

Bullpen (last 14d)

35.5%

Offense (wRC+)

6.6%

Park & weather

1.3%

Joey Cantillo

Shane McClanahan

LHP

3.74

ERA

3.16

4.04

FIP

3.40

1.42

WHIP

1.15

9.5

K/9

8.4

4.4

BB/9

3.1

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—