mlbAmerican Family Field

Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers

10h 41m 36s

Colorado Rockies28%

Milwaukee Brewers72%

Milwaukee Brewers is favored at 72%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and a fresher bullpen.

Colorado Rockies34%

Milwaukee Brewers66%

F5 · Projected score

Colorado Rockies

2.1

–

Milwaukee Brewers

3.1

Projected total runs

Leans over

9.4

+0.4 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Colorado Rockies

3.8

–

Milwaukee Brewers

5.6

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

💡SIGNAL

Bet: Milwaukee Brewers leading after 5

Our analysis

66%

Market

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Why: Clearly better starting pitcher in the first five innings

Historical hit rate: not enough historical games yet

Why 72%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayColorado RockiesMilwaukee BrewersHome

Starter matchup

73.1%

Bullpen (last 14d)

20.2%

Offense (wRC+)

3.6%

Park & weather

3.1%

Tomoyuki Sugano

Shane Drohan

RHP

LHP

4.76

ERA

3.20

5.43

FIP

3.12

1.29

WHIP

1.18

5.1

K/9

9.0

2.3

BB/9

2.5

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

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