mlbWrigley Field

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs

51m 47s

Detroit Tigers50%

Chicago Cubs50%

Market underrates Detroit Tigers by 3 points · fresher bullpen

Chicago Cubs is favored at 50%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and park and weather conditions.

Projected total runs

Leans under

8.6

-0.4 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Detroit Tigers

4.3

–

Chicago Cubs

4.4

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Why 50%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayDetroit TigersChicago CubsHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

60.6%

Starter matchup

12.1%

Park & weather

12.1%

Market consensus

9.1%

Offense (wRC+)

6.1%

Tarik Skubal

Matthew Boyd

LHP

2.83

ERA

4.15

2.90

FIP

3.73

0.93

WHIP

1.21

10.7

K/9

8.8

1.2

BB/9

2.4

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—