mlbRate Field

Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox

14h 12m 38s

Houston Astros32%

Chicago White Sox68%

Chicago White Sox is favored at 68%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and a fresher bullpen.

Houston Astros36%

Chicago White Sox64%

F5 · Projected score

Houston Astros

1.9

–

Chicago White Sox

2.7

Projected total runs

Leans under

8.2

-0.8 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Houston Astros

3.4

–

Chicago White Sox

4.8

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 68%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayHouston AstrosChicago White SoxHome

Starter matchup

74.8%

Bullpen (last 14d)

20.8%

Park & weather

4.4%

Offense (wRC+)

0.0%

Spencer Arrighetti

Davis Martin

RHP

4.34

ERA

3.31

5.01

FIP

3.10

1.31

WHIP

1.27

9.0

K/9

8.2

5.0

BB/9

2.8

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—