mlbComerica Park

Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers

22h 10m 22s

Kansas City Royals29%

Detroit Tigers71%

Strong pick · Detroit Tigers

High confidence, market edge and multiple factors align.

Detroit Tigers is favored at 71%, largely due to a fresher bullpen and stronger starting pitching.

F5 69%/31%

Projected total runs

Leans under

8.6

-0.4 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Kansas City Royals

3.5

–

Detroit Tigers

5.1

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Why 71%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayKansas City RoyalsDetroit TigersHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

55.8%

Starter matchup

43.0%

Offense (wRC+)

1.2%

Park & weather

0.0%

Randy Dobnak

Troy Melton

RHP

1.93

ERA

1.80

5.72

FIP

3.91

1.50

WHIP

0.87

4.5

K/9

8.2

5.1

BB/9

2.5

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L3 ERA

—

Days rest

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