mlbComerica Park

Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers

13h 10m 55s

Kansas City Royals32%

Detroit Tigers68%

Market underrates Detroit Tigers by 3 points · pitcher

Detroit Tigers is favored at 68%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and a fresher bullpen.

Kansas City Royals33%

Detroit Tigers67%

F5 · Projected score

Kansas City Royals

1.8

–

Detroit Tigers

2.8

Projected total runs

Leans under

8.4

-0.6 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Kansas City Royals

3.3

–

Detroit Tigers

5.1

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

💡SIGNAL+3pp

Bet: Detroit Tigers to win

Our analysis

68%

Market

65%

▸ +3pp value

Why: Model edge driven by stronger pitcher and bullpen (last 14d).

Historical hit rate: not enough historical games yet

Why 68%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayKansas City RoyalsDetroit TigersHome

Starter matchup

50.9%

Market consensus

25.7%

Bullpen (last 14d)

22.2%

Offense (wRC+)

0.6%

Park & weather

0.6%

Beck Way

Tarik Skubal

—

ERA

—

FIP

—

WHIP

—

K/9

—

BB/9

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—