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mlbCiti Field
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets
13h 42m 34s
Los Angeles Dodgers40%
New York Mets60%
New York Mets is favored at 60%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and a fresher bullpen.
F5
Los Angeles Dodgers42%
New York Mets58%
F5 · Projected score
Los Angeles Dodgers
2.4
–
New York Mets
2.9
Projected total runs
Leans over9.6
+0.6 vs league avg 9.0
Projected score
Los Angeles Dodgers
4.4
–
New York Mets
5.2
Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.
Betting recommendations
Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.
The model finds no clear value bets for this game.
Why 60%?
Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.
AwayLos Angeles DodgersNew York MetsHome
Starter matchup
66.2%
Bullpen (last 14d)
12.2%
Offense (wRC+)
10.8%
Park & weather
10.8%
Roki Sasaki
Sean Manaea
RHP
LHP
4.98
ERA
4.74
5.39
FIP
4.39
1.34
WHIP
1.36
8.8
K/9
9.2
3.5
BB/9
2.9
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L3 ERA
—
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Days rest
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