mlbCitizens Bank Park

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies

Los Angeles Dodgers47%

Philadelphia Phillies53%

Philadelphia Phillies is favored at 53%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and the stronger offense.

Projected total runs

Near league average

8.9

-0.1 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Los Angeles Dodgers

4.3

–

Philadelphia Phillies

4.5

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Why 53%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayLos Angeles DodgersPhiladelphia PhilliesHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

31.3%

Starter matchup

25.0%

Offense (wRC+)

18.8%

Park & weather

18.8%

Market consensus

6.3%

Eric Lauer

Jesús Luzardo

LHP

4.81

ERA

3.43

—

FIP

—

1.28

WHIP

1.21

5.5

K/9

11.2

3.2

BB/9

2.9

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—