mlbDaikin Park

Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros

52m 40s

Miami Marlins50%

Houston Astros50%

Houston Astros is favored at 50%, despite Miami Marlins' starting pitcher having the better numbers.

Projected total runs

Leans under

8.7

-0.3 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Miami Marlins

4.4

–

Houston Astros

4.3

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Why 50%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayMiami MarlinsHouston AstrosHome

Starter matchup

38.6%

Bullpen (last 14d)

38.6%

Park & weather

14.3%

Offense (wRC+)

8.6%

Market consensus

0.0%

Sandy Alcantara

Spencer Arrighetti

RHP

3.89

ERA

4.34

3.88

FIP

5.01

1.22

WHIP

1.31

7.0

K/9

9.0

2.4

BB/9

5.0

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—