mlbProgressive Field

Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians

Minnesota Twins41%

Cleveland Guardians59%

Market underrates Cleveland Guardians by 13 points · fresher bullpen

Cleveland Guardians is favored at 59%, largely due to a fresher bullpen, despite Minnesota Twins' starting pitcher having the better numbers.

Projected total runs

Near league average

9.1

+0.1 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Minnesota Twins

4.2

–

Cleveland Guardians

4.9

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Why 59%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayMinnesota TwinsCleveland GuardiansHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

68.9%

Market consensus

16.7%

Starter matchup

5.6%

Offense (wRC+)

4.4%

Park & weather

4.4%

Bailey Ober

Slade Cecconi

—

ERA

—

FIP

—

WHIP

—

K/9

—

BB/9

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

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