mlbProgressive Field

Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians

17h 50m 55s

Minnesota Twins39%

Cleveland Guardians61%

Market underrates Cleveland Guardians by 3 points · fresher bullpen

Cleveland Guardians is favored at 61%, largely due to a fresher bullpen.

Projected total runs

Near league average

9.1

+0.1 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Minnesota Twins

4.2

–

Cleveland Guardians

4.9

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Why 61%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayMinnesota TwinsCleveland GuardiansHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

78.8%

Market consensus

13.8%

Park & weather

5.0%

Offense (wRC+)

2.5%

Starter matchup

0.0%

Zebby Matthews

Joey Cantillo

RHP

LHP

5.40

ERA

3.74

5.26

FIP

4.04

1.34

WHIP

1.42

7.5

K/9

9.5

2.7

BB/9

4.4

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

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