mlbCitizens Bank Park

New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies

13h 15m 55s

New York Yankees40%

Philadelphia Phillies60%

Philadelphia Phillies is favored at 60%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and the stronger offense.

New York Yankees44%

Philadelphia Phillies56%

F5 · Projected score

New York Yankees

2.0

–

Philadelphia Phillies

2.3

Projected total runs

Leans under

7.8

-1.2 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

New York Yankees

3.6

–

Philadelphia Phillies

4.3

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 60%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayNew York YankeesPhiladelphia PhilliesHome

Starter matchup

68.3%

Bullpen (last 14d)

20.6%

Offense (wRC+)

7.8%

Park & weather

3.3%

Will Warren

Jesús Luzardo

—

ERA

—

FIP

—

WHIP

—

K/9

—

BB/9

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—