mlbTruist Park

San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves

San Diego Padres43%

Atlanta Braves57%

Atlanta Braves is favored at 57%, largely due to a fresher bullpen and stronger starting pitching.

Projected total runs

Leans under

8.6

-0.4 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

San Diego Padres

4.1

–

Atlanta Braves

4.5

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Why 57%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwaySan Diego PadresAtlanta BravesHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

73.5%

Offense (wRC+)

11.8%

Starter matchup

11.8%

Park & weather

2.9%

Germán Márquez

Martín Pérez

RHP

LHP

5.24

ERA

3.54

6.55

FIP

4.48

1.54

WHIP

1.19

6.0

K/9

6.9

4.4

BB/9

3.5

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

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