mlbTruist Park

San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves

16h 54m 51s

San Diego Padres45%

Atlanta Braves55%

Atlanta Braves is favored at 55%, largely due to a fresher bullpen and the stronger offense.

Projected total runs

Leans under

8.7

-0.3 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

San Diego Padres

4.1

–

Atlanta Braves

4.5

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Why 55%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwaySan Diego PadresAtlanta BravesHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

73.7%

Offense (wRC+)

18.4%

Park & weather

7.9%

Starter matchup

0.0%

Griffin Canning

Chris Sale

RHP

LHP

6.67

ERA

2.06

4.85

FIP

2.77

1.62

WHIP

1.06

8.9

K/9

10.5

4.8

BB/9

2.1

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

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