mlbloanDepot park

San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins

13h 43m 19s

San Diego Padres33%

Miami Marlins67%

Miami Marlins is favored at 67%, largely due to stronger starting pitching.

San Diego Padres39%

Miami Marlins61%

F5 · Projected score

San Diego Padres

2.5

–

Miami Marlins

3.2

Projected total runs

Leans over

10.1

+1.1 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

San Diego Padres

4.3

–

Miami Marlins

5.8

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 67%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwaySan Diego PadresMiami MarlinsHome

Starter matchup

91.9%

Bullpen (last 14d)

3.7%

Offense (wRC+)

2.2%

Park & weather

2.2%

Germán Márquez

—

RHP

—

5.24

ERA

—

6.55

FIP

—

1.54

WHIP

—

6.0

K/9

—

4.4

BB/9

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—