mlbAngel Stadium

St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels

St. Louis Cardinals39%

Los Angeles Angels61%

Market underrates Los Angeles Angels by 11 points · stronger offense

Los Angeles Angels is favored at 61%, largely due to the stronger offense and a fresher bullpen, despite St. Louis Cardinals' starting pitcher having the better numbers.

Projected total runs

Leans over

11.8

+2.8 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

St. Louis Cardinals

5.4

–

Los Angeles Angels

6.4

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Why 61%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwaySt. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles AngelsHome

Offense (wRC+)

69.0%

Market consensus

22.0%

Starter matchup

6.0%

Park & weather

2.0%

Bullpen (last 14d)

1.0%

Michael McGreevy

Grayson Rodriguez

RHP

2.92

ERA

8.23

—

FIP

—

1.10

WHIP

1.77

5.9

K/9

6.9

2.0

BB/9

4.4

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—