mlbRogers Centre

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays47%

Toronto Blue Jays53%

Toronto Blue Jays is favored at 53%, largely due to stronger starting pitching.

Projected total runs

Near league average

9.2

+0.2 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Tampa Bay Rays

4.5

–

Toronto Blue Jays

4.7

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Tipsters: 61% Toronto Blue Jays (2 sites)

Why 53%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayTampa Bay RaysToronto Blue JaysHome

Starter matchup

51.2%

Bullpen (last 14d)

43.9%

Offense (wRC+)

4.9%

Park & weather

0.0%

Griffin Jax

Braydon Fisher

RHP

4.08

ERA

3.65

4.47

FIP

4.16

1.27

WHIP

1.18

9.2

K/9

9.1

3.1

BB/9

4.0

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—